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Forecasts
Illustrative 15-year projections of three branches’ assets under 100% Third Seat adoption. Floor expands with trust. Refusal constrains unbacked grants. Numbers are scenario-based, not a forecast.
United States
- Floor (capitalized senior): ~$31T
- State residual claims: ~$36T
- Firm residual claims: ~$21T
- Person residual / net worth: ~$417T
Europe
- Floor (capitalized senior): ~$12T
- State residual claims: ~$13T
- Firm residual claims: ~$11T
- Person residual / net worth: ~$234T
Asia
- Floor (capitalized senior): ~$22T
- State residual claims: ~$20T
- Firm residual claims: ~$19T
- Person residual / net worth: ~$364T
Africa
- Floor (capitalized senior): ~$4T
- State residual claims: ~$4T
- Firm residual claims: ~$4T
- Person residual / net worth: ~$52T
Aggregate (US + Europe + Asia + Africa)
- Floor (capitalized senior): ~$69T
- State residual claims: ~$62T
- Firm residual claims: ~$49T
- Person residual / net worth: ~$1,192T
Sociology and economic implications
Implications at the five-year mark and the following three years, drawn from the public sequence and the illustrative adoption path. These are not predictions.
At the five-year mark
- Floor becomes a visible senior claim. Enough named surplus has been titled that the baseline basket is paid first on a public schedule for participating cohorts. Survival is no longer priced at the door for those on the tape.
- Trust remains selective. Adoption is uneven. The floor is larger than at year zero but still small relative to total household net worth. Person residual has grown mainly through participation.
- State and firm residuals are constrained but not transformed. Unbacked grants continue outside the system. Inside it, the public tape and refusal power have slowed residual growth for participating seats.
- Social division is the main fact. A minority treats the public sequence as ordinary. The majority still experiences money as a grant from above.
Years five to eight
- Floor expansion depends on the stop condition. If the floor has paid on time and the tape has been regularly shown, more surplus can be named without a private window. If the stop condition is softened, later growth is illusory.
- Refusal becomes a routine public act. Third Seat refusals of lines that skip the order become ordinary tape entries. The cost of a quiet print rises for anyone who wants to clear inside the system.
- Person residual rises with participation. Individuals on the tape hold both the security of the larger floor and a larger titled residual. Those outside see no automatic gain.
- State and firm seats face a choice. They may issue off the tape and lose clearing privilege inside the adopted cohort, or issue under the same sequence and accept constrained residual growth.
- No new private window appears. The same rules still bind state, firm, and person. Any expansion of the floor still comes from surplus already named, not from a fresh print.
Floor stays senior. Same sequence binds state, firm, and person. If it cannot be shown, it is not policy. An unpublished change is not a change.